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t's finally Kentucky Derby week in Louisville and a crowd of more than 130,000 is expected to squeeze into Churchill Downs for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 3. First up is the $1.5 Million Kentucky Oaks on Friday.
At the moment (Wednesday) all 20 preferred ...starters are planned for the starting gate which would leave only also eligible Baeza standing alone in the stakes barn on Saturday.
Weather a factor?
The weather may be a factor in this year's Derby with rain expected most of Thursday and Friday and much of Saturday morning, Derby Day. Forecasters see the rain ending early afternoon and clearing skies which could dry out the dirt surface before Derby post at 6:57 p.m.
A hint. Watch the drying surface in race 8,9,10 and 11 to see how it is playing. If the 10th and 11th races are graded good/fast but the surface looks cuppy the heaviness could result in closers unable to reel in the speedsters.
How might the race play?
This year's running is the first time in several years where about half the field shows lightning speed when the gate opens and blazes through fast early fractions. The other half are more patient settling at mid-pack while waiting for an opportunity to open. The favorites aren't prominent until exploding forward in the final eighth of a mile from far back. Which do you favor - run and gun for the lead or patience, wait your time and sweep by tired horses in the stretch?
Who wins?
As you hear all the time, the best horse doesn't always win the Derby. A 20 horse field is a calvary charge at the start and a lot can happen to end a horse's chance - crushed inside along the rail and forced back into the field, bumped early and pushed wide on the turn, boxed in amid a wall of horses on the far turn, unable to break loose, the speedster doesn't slow and the closers can't catch him? Or a hold your breath as the winner drives down the stretch passing the field? We will see.
This could be the fastest first half mile for a Derby in a number of years. The fastest of the fast is #12 East Avenue. He should break quickest and control the early speed. He'll be challenged by #20 Owen Almighty but don't expect him to be around after a sizzling half mile. Other speedsters trying to get out in front will be #1 Citizen Bull, if he doesn't his race will be over before it's over. #4 Rodriguez will be among the early leaders, #2 Neoquos, is a horse who likes the speed but isn't quick enough for these runners.
East Avenue will take a strung out field through a steamy 7 furlongs while other struggle to stay with him. #3 Final Gambit will sit comfortably in mid-pack likely 4-5 lengths off the leader. I don't see him a late factor late however, having won only a maiden and low level stakes race prior. Others hanging around in the middle will be #5 American Promise ,usually showing early speed, he isn't quick enough to do so here, he'll fade at the mile. Sitting comfortably in mid-pack will be the major players #8 Journalism, #9 Burham Square, #13 Publisher, and #17 Sandman.
Non factors in the race are #7 Luxor Cafe, #10 Grande, #11 Flying Mohawk, #6 Admire Daytona (Jpn), #14 Tiztastic, #15 Render Judgment, and #19 Chunk of gold.
As they turn into the stretch, East Avenue and the remaining speedsters start to slow as strides shorten. I see the favorite Journalism swing to the outside and begin his run. Joining will be Sandman, Burnham Square and Publisher. East Avenue will do his best to hold on but I see Journalism, the only multiple 100+ Beyer in the race, cross the finish 3/4 length ahead for the Derby win.
My Bets
#8 - Journalism for the win.
Exacta - 8 & 17 over 9, 12, 13, 18. 13- Publisher and 18 - Sovereignty are the surprise "in the money" possibilities.
I'll do some form of trifecta boxes with all the above. And a 10 cent superfecta 8/9/17 over 8/9/12/13/17/18.
My sentimental or hunch bet is Journalism combined with Publisher. Earlier in life I worked as a reporter and editor/publisher in the newspaper industry. How can I not make this play?
Final thoughts
Journalism is an $825,000 purchase by the champion Curlin. Sandman cost $1.2 million, a son of Tapit, he's owned by a conglomerate of four of the largest industry syndicates, a sign of where the top of the thoroughbred industry is headed. This desire to spend unlimited dollars among the big syndicates is transforming thoroughbred horse racing. Not for the good.
There are some bargains also in the Derby field. Noequos was a steal at $22,000, Flying Mohawk sold for $72,000, Coal Battle, $70,000 and Chunk of Gold, a give away purchase for $2,500.
Happy Derby Day.
Bona Venture Stables, LLC
Watch as 3YO Irish bred Ortley Avenue, set off at 3-1, explode out of the inside one post immediately gaining a two length advantage and holding it throughout to record an impressive maiden victory at Gulfstream Park.
3YO Irish bred Ortley Avenue, set off at 3-1, exploded out of the inside one post immediately gaining a two length advantage and held it throughout ...
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Ortley Avenue Gets Maiden Win at Gulfstream Park on April 6, 2025
🏇 Swift Magic Stuns at 21-to-1! 🏆
Swift Magic delivered a breathtaking performance, overcoming the odds to secure a dramatic victory! With heart and determination, she surged ahead in the final stretch, fending off fierce competition to cross the finish line in 1:43.59.
Watch the... race and celebrate this unforgettable moment! 🎥
#SwiftMagic #bonaventurestables #horseracing
What a race! Swift Magic delivered an unforgettable performance, capturing a dramatic victory at odds of 21-to-1. This talented filly showed grit,...
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Swift Magic Wins at Aqueduct Race Track on Jan. 4, 2025
Check out Beautiful Thief as she finds an opening and surges forward in the final stretch, sprinting ahead to take the lead and secure a clear victory at Aqueduct Race Track. This is her 2nd victory in 3 career starts!
3YO New York bred filly "Beautiful Thief" began the race in fourth position, staying off the early pace set by "Here Comes Mod" and "Morning Grouch."...
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Beautiful Thief Wins at Aqueduct Race Track on Sept 26, 2024
About a dozen years ago my daughter Claire Collins Dunham asked me to run a half marathon with her, and I did. Hadn't done so in quite a long time. Now, 12 years later she and I will run the Wine Glass half marathon (Corning, NY) on Sunday, Oct. 5. After 60 years of racing, this is it for me. ...I'll keep running but no more racing, if you can call it that still. See you on the road.
Bona Stables Beautiful Thief takes on winners in the 4th race at the Big A on Thursday, a 6F turf sprint. Top Beyer figure in the race. She’ll be tough as long as race stays on the turf. Here, grandson’s cheer on her maiden win at Saratoga last summer.
Bona Stables Ocean’s Reserve in Saratoga’s 5th race Saturday. Tough Allowance at 6 1/2F. He’s ready.
Bona Venture Stables’ 2YO Swift Magic makes his 2nd Saratoga start Sunday, Aug. 25 in the day’s 2nd race. Likely favorite for the 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint.
3YO New York bred filly Beautiful Thief stormed down the Saratoga stretch in Saturday's 12th race for an impressive victory in the $90,000 maiden run at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.
This was her second career run and her prior race experience was evident. Beautiful Thief broke smartly ...from the 5 post in a field of 10 runners and Javier Castellano deftly guided her down along the rail. She was challenged immediately so Castellano allowed others to set the pace. At the half mile mark Castellano guided her out into the three path, waited until the quarter pole and she professionally worked her way past the leaders for the impressive win by 1 1/2 length widening lead over the finish line.
3YO New York bred filly Beautiful Thief stormed down the Saratoga stretch in Saturday's 12th race for an impressive victory in the $90,000 maiden run...
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